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Floods of the Future and What We Need to Do About Them

Opinion by Tim Palmer and Carol Haskins.



On August 18, a flood delivered by intense local rainstorms clobbered Southbury, Oxford, and other Connecticut communities. While the Pomperaug River in Southbury did not exceed its high-water record from 1955, the Town of Southbury rightly reported this event “as its largest flood in history.” This followed on the heels of torrential rain from Tropical Storm Beryl and Hurricane Debby, which devastated other parts of the Northeast earlier this year.  


The losses from the recent flood in Connecticut have been costly and heart-breaking for all who are directly involved. There is no doubt that the needs of our community members call for immediate generosity in relief and recovery. However, we must also look forward to improve our response to future climate disasters, which are destined to become more frequent and severe. While denial of continuing hazards may seem easy once the horrors of a flood wane, this approach will only cause our communities more hardship in the future.


The National Center for Atmospheric Research has forecasted that extreme storms will multiply by up to 400% by the year 2100. The First Street Foundation, a non-profit research organization working to define America’s flood risk, reported that our warming climate will cause flood damages to swell from $20 billion in 2021 to $32 billion by 2051. Floods of the “100-year” magnitude (meaning a 1 in 100 or 1% chance of it happening in any given year) now occur along some streams every few years and sometimes multiple times per year such as those in Connecticut and Vermont in 2011, 2023, and 2024. With this knowledge, we need to prepare for the greater storms of tomorrow.


Our town, city, state, and federal governments have spent billions to prevent flooding with dams and levees and to help people rebuild after floods, yet flood damages continue to peak at record levels. Dams breach, levees fail, and people’s homes and businesses remain vulnerable to repeated flooding.


Though already devastating, the damages from the flood in Southbury and Oxford could have been far worse if it weren’t for farsighted programs to acquire floodplain open space and to discourage new construction in flood zones. However, too often municipalities are unwilling to effectively curb new development in our expanding floodplains, increasing the risk of future flood damage.


Nationally, only a small portion of federal funding has been relegated to relocation assistance compared to the amount allocated to disaster recovery and subsidized rebuilding in flood zones. The Natural Resources Defense Council found that for every $1.70 the Federal Government spends helping people to relocate away from flood zones, $100 is spent helping people stay in the path of danger through rebuilding incentives, insurance subsidies, and infrastructure repairs. Inversely, a University of Bristol and Nature Conservancy survey found that for every $1 spent converting flood damaged properties into public greenways, $5 is saved as future flood damages are avoided.


Surprises such as the flash flood that hammered Connecticut on August 18 should not be surprises, and the damages to our communities should not be allowed to increase. The Association of State Floodplain Managers, a non-profit dedicated to reducing national flood losses, promotes a package of reforms that could turn federal flood response policy in a better direction by limiting repeated payouts, closing loopholes in the National Flood Insurance Program that allow for continued development in floodplains, updating flood zone designations, and requiring disclosure of flood risks in real estate transactions.


Immediate help after the waters recede is essential for flood victims to recover, but our government should also focus on preventing future flooding damage by urging protection of floodplain open space and also increasing assistance for people to relocate out of flood zones. Each and every flood should be a reminder that all levels of government need to put a greater focus on preventing future flood losses rather than simply paying for damages after they occur. The safety of our communities depends on it.

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Tim Palmer is the author of the 2024 book Seek Higher Ground: The Natural Solution To Our Urgent Flooding Crisis, and dozens of other books on rivers and conservation. He worked for ten years as an environmental planner focusing on flooding issues. Watch a short film about Tim's important and timely book below. Carol Haskins is Executive Director of the Pomperaug River Watershed Coalition and has worked in the field of watershed management for more than two decades.




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